(This article appeared in the Yukon Star, 12 July 2024 .)

Yukoners encounter risk every day.

Risk is the product of probability (how likely is an event to occur?) and impact (what is the worst outcome if that event does occur?). Crossing a street, for example, can be risky. If an accident should occur, the result could be deadly (i.e., high impact). But in most cases, the chance of an accident while crossing a street is small (i.e., low probability).

Has gold lost its glitter in the face of climate change and leaching heaps?

So we accept the risk if the payoff (maybe getting to the grocery store) is greater than the risk. We take this in stride and don’t think much about it.

The Victoria Gold heap leach failure brings the concept of risk sharply back into focus. Clearly, the probability of heap leach failure there was higher than anyone had anticipated. The impact is very serious for all Yukoners from environmental and economic perspectives, among others.

But Yukoners accepted the risk because we believed it was worth the net payoff. What did we get in exchange for that risk?

There was the economic payoff, short term. Jobs for Yukoners. Money into the economy through contracts with Yukon companies. Development opportunities for the First Nation of Na-cho Nyäk Dun.

There was a cost, short term. Extra wear on public roads maintained by taxpayer dollars. Unpaid debt to Yukon companies. Environmental cost to be determined, might be long term.

There was the output from the mine, short term, sent Outside. Gold and profits for shareholders.

There was climate change impact, medium/long term. Greenhouse gas emissions from traffic to/from the site and from equipment engaged in mine construction and operations on location. Extra power capacity including diesel and natural gas top-ups to Yukon’s hydro to power milling operations.

So in exchange for the risk, we have obtained some short-term benefits, some short-term costs, and some medium/long-term serious impacts to produce gold.

What would change if Victoria Gold had been producing copper? The payoff and costs would be roughly the same. Only the output product would be different: copper instead of gold.

Copper is on Canada’s list of critical minerals that are essential for technology to move toward a net-zero economy and address climate change. Gold is not. Only about 11% of gold goes for industrial use and that isn’t critical for climate change.

Yes, the climate is changing, and changing faster in the North than anywhere in Canada. If we’re going to leave a habitable world for the generations that follow, we need to achieve major change. And achieving major change in the future means making major change now. Major change is expensive and will probably drive big modifications to our lifestyle expectations.

So, as Yukoners, we need to make difficult decisions about how we deal with our rapidly climate-changing North and the legacy we leave to our grand-children’s grand-children.

How much risk, if any, are we willing to accept to produce gold that does nothing to help climate change and also aggravates the situation through the costs it incurs while diverting resources from solving the problem?

Are we willing to accept the risk and cost of other activities (e.g., copper mining) in the short/medium (or long) term if they contribute to addressing climate change long term?

Do we have the courage to take the short-term economic hit (maybe fewer jobs or higher fuel prices now) to help fix the long-term problems?

Do we carry on with business as usual hoping for some miracle solution that nobody has thought of yet?

Gold has been a driver of the Yukon economy for many decades. It has provided many Yukoners with a livelihood and a future. But the risks and costs of producing gold have changed after a century and a quarter of placer and quartz mining.

Maybe ending gold production here is one of the major changes that we must make now to achieve the major change we require to be able to leave the larger-than-life Yukon we know today to future generations.

Yes, change is difficult.

TimmiT editing, writing, procurement